| Type | VIDs | Transits | mean | sd | max | mean | sd | min | max | mean | sd | min | max | mean | sd | min | max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cargo ship | 54 | 157 | 12.7 | 1.7 | 17.1 | 159 | 53 | 26 | 200 | 26 | 8 | 7 | 33 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 11.0 |
| Cargo ship:DG,HS,MP(X) | 1 | 2 | 11.9 | 0.7 | 13.7 | 67 | 0 | 67 | 67 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Diving op. | 1 | 4 | 7.8 | 0.7 | 10.0 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Dredging or underwater op. | 3 | 36 | 9.7 | 2.4 | 15.0 | 63 | 34 | 35 | 119 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 |
| Fishing | 308 | 829 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 32.2 | 20 | 9 | 6 | 100 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 10.0 |
| HSC | 3 | 8 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 28.6 | 25 | 13 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 4.0 |
| Law enforcement | 3 | 3 | 9.7 | 1.5 | 12.6 | 42 | 16 | 26 | 68 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
| Local ship | 2 | 10 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 26.5 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Military op. | 1 | 4 | 9.1 | 2.4 | 15.0 | 33 | 0 | 33 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Other | 22 | 78 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 24.9 | 37 | 22 | 6 | 76 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 6.0 |
| Passenger ship | 58 | 803 | 15.1 | 5.7 | 35.6 | 108 | 75 | 11 | 301 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 36 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 8.0 |
| Passenger ship:DG,HS,MP(Y) | 1 | 2 | 11.1 | 0.4 | 11.8 | 64 | 0 | 64 | 64 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Pilot | 2 | 6 | 19.9 | 3.1 | 25.8 | 19 | 1 | 17 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Pleasure Craft | 275 | 1213 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 37.5 | 20 | 16 | 7 | 154 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 9.0 |
| Port tender | 1 | 2 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 8.8 | 26 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Sailing | 117 | 426 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 12.6 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 3.0 |
| Search/rescue | 14 | 193 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 39.2 | 52 | 15 | 7 | 83 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 6.0 |
| Tanker | 2 | 7 | 12.1 | 0.8 | 13.9 | 141 | 5 | 134 | 145 | 24 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 8.7 | 0.5 | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| Towing | 36 | 356 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 21.7 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 162 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 7.0 |
| Towing(200/25) | 42 | 382 | 8.8 | 1.6 | 13.7 | 32 | 6 | 12 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 7.0 |
| Tug | 62 | 873 | 7.4 | 1.8 | 13.9 | 27 | 28 | 11 | 178 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 6.0 |
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| Vessel type | IDs | Transits | Transits/day | mean | sd | max | mean | sd | min | max | mean | sd | min | max | mean | sd | min | max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cargo > 180m | 38 | 94 | 0.26 | 13.1 | 1.4 | 17.1 | 193 | 7 | 180 | 200 | 31 | 1 | 28 | 33 | 9.5 | 1.7 | 6.0 | 11 |
| Fishing < 60m | 305 | 822 | 2.25 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 32.2 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 54 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 10 |
| Other < 40m | 70 | 565 | 1.55 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 39.2 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 40 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 8 |
| Other > 100m | 23 | 378 | 1.04 | 16.0 | 3.4 | 23.0 | 142 | 18 | 116 | 179 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 10 |
| Other > 40m | 46 | 340 | 0.93 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 16.6 | 57 | 14 | 42 | 100 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 6 |
| Passenger > 180m | 6 | 73 | 0.20 | 17.4 | 3.4 | 23.3 | 259 | 39 | 197 | 301 | 32 | 2 | 28 | 36 | 7.8 | 0.4 | 7.0 | 8 |
| Pleasurecraft < 40m | 263 | 1123 | 3.08 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 37.5 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 9 |
| Sailing | 117 | 426 | 1.17 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 12.6 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 3 |
| Towing < 50m | 74 | 738 | 2.02 | 8.0 | 1.9 | 21.7 | 29 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 7 |
| Tug < 50m | 61 | 835 | 2.29 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 13.9 | 22 | 8 | 11 | 41 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 6 |
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| type | vids | fixes | transits | transit_rate | dates_present | present_rate | speed_mn | speed_sd | speed_max | length_mn | length_sd | length_min | length_max | beam_mn | beam_sd | beam_min | beam_max | draft_mn | draft_sd | draft_min | draft_max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cargo > 180m | 4 | 82 | 4 | 0.01 | 4 | 0.01 | 12.4 | 1.6 | 14.6 | 187 | 8 | 180 | 200 | 31 | 1 | 30 | 32 | 10.2 | 0.9 | 9.0 | 11 |
| Fishing < 60m | 30 | 1889 | 75 | 0.21 | 56 | 0.15 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 32.2 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 6 |
| Other < 40m | 6 | 387 | 20 | 0.05 | 20 | 0.05 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 31.5 | 26 | 8 | 7 | 40 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 5 |
| Other > 100m | 5 | 172 | 9 | 0.02 | 9 | 0.02 | 10.4 | 2.0 | 13.5 | 157 | 19 | 134 | 178 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 29 | 6.6 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 9 |
| Other > 40m | 13 | 1018 | 59 | 0.16 | 57 | 0.16 | 9.5 | 2.4 | 15.0 | 55 | 14 | 42 | 98 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 6 |
| Passenger > 180m | 5 | 369 | 19 | 0.05 | 19 | 0.05 | 18.1 | 2.5 | 22.0 | 270 | 39 | 197 | 301 | 33 | 1 | 28 | 34 | 7.8 | 0.4 | 7.0 | 8 |
| Pleasurecraft < 40m | 70 | 2295 | 142 | 0.39 | 87 | 0.24 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 34.4 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 2 |
| Sailing | 17 | 766 | 35 | 0.10 | 32 | 0.09 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 9.0 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 3 |
| Towing < 50m | 14 | 803 | 40 | 0.11 | 39 | 0.11 | 9.2 | 1.4 | 11.8 | 34 | 4 | 26 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 6 |
| Tug < 50m | 17 | 1594 | 74 | 0.20 | 62 | 0.17 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 11.2 | 23 | 9 | 12 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 6 |
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Figure S1. Length distributions of the ten vessel classes used to summarize marine traffic in 2019.
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Figure S2. Speed distributions, in knots, of the ten vessel classes used to summarize marine traffic in 2019.
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Figure S3.
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Figure S4.
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| type | km_2014 | km_2015 | km_2018 | km_2019 | km_2030 | scale_factor | rate_2019 | rate_2030 | pvalue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cargo > 180m | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9444 | 16943 | 1.79 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.30 |
| Fishing < 60m | 17165 | 16377 | 31949 | 45784 | 86437 | 1.89 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Other < 40m | 62201 | 87269 | 57399 | 18723 | 0 | 0.00 | -0.48 | -0.24 | 0.24 |
| Other > 100m | 25213 | 19011 | 27281 | 26166 | 33552 | 1.28 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.44 |
| Other > 40m | 27391 | 9943 | 23408 | 29184 | 37725 | 1.29 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.60 |
| Passenger > 180m | 6212 | 5489 | 10403 | 6168 | 11554 | 1.87 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.55 |
| Pleasurecraft < 40m | 0 | 0 | 56 | 51215 | 91952 | 1.80 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.30 |
| Sailing | 357 | 1553 | 12538 | 20934 | 50795 | 2.43 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| Towing < 50m | 35311 | 15299 | 39409 | 42838 | 67175 | 1.57 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.38 |
| Tug < 50m | 30971 | 44685 | 46344 | 43301 | 61901 | 1.43 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.33 |
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Figure S5.
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Table S1.x. Dimensions of the LNG Canada fleet, adapted from TERMPOL (2015). Note that in our analyses, we reduced the max Shell length to 298m, and the beam was adjusted according to the original length:beam ratio.
| Year | segments | km | total | valid | total | valid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 143 | 712.5204 | 8 | 6 | 68 | 38 |
| 2014 | 168 | 800.5337 | 18 | 17 | 134 | 130 |
| 2015 | 402 | 2083.1364 | 19 | 19 | 253 | 251 |
Figure S6. (a) Design-based line-transect survey effort throughout the central Gitga’at waters of the Kitimat Fjord System (each dot is the center of a 5-km segment of systematic effort), yielding detections of (b) fin whales and (c) humpback whales. Detection dot size reflects group size
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| Species | Model | Key function | Formula | C-vM p-value | \(\hat{P_a}\) | se(\(\hat{P_a}\)) | \(\Delta\)AIC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fin whale | 1 | Half-normal | ~1 | 0.8405095 | 0.5500191 | 0.0742873 | 0.0000000 |
| 3 | 2 | Half-normal | ~1 + factor(year) | 0.7815848 | 0.5231299 | 0.0742940 | 0.3047398 | |
| 2 | 3 | Half-normal | ~1 + bft | 0.8250065 | 0.5465154 | 0.0793721 | 1.5958236 | |
| 31 | Humpback whale | 1 | Half-normal | ~1 + factor(year) | 0.9652267 | 0.5204825 | 0.0213641 | 0.0000000 |
| 21 | 2 | Half-normal | ~1 + bft | 0.9637787 | 0.5296131 | 0.0215150 | 9.0061244 | |
| 11 | 3 | Half-normal | ~1 | 0.9430440 | 0.5364511 | 0.0213979 | 15.9211900 |
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Figure S7. Detection functions.
Figure S8. Bathymetric characteristics of the study area, as summarized for the square-kilometer grid used in density surface modeling. Â
Figure S9. Raw time- and depth-distributions of depth sensor readings for each of the 7 SPLASH-10 tag deployments.
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Figure S10. Time distribution (hour of day, color-coded by daytime/nighttime) of depth samples from SPLASH10 tags.
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| id | deploy_ptt | start | stop | span | hours | n | n_day | n_night | frac_valid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 132219-132219 | 2013-08-19 23:00:00 | 2013-08-24 20:58:45 | 117.97917 | 8.00000 | 384 | 336 | 48 | 0.07 |
| 2 | 132220-132220 | 2013-08-18 18:47:30 | 2013-08-28 19:57:30 | 241.16667 | 26.18750 | 1257 | 837 | 420 | 0.11 |
| 3 | 137684-137684 | 2014-08-16 00:15:00 | 2014-08-16 23:57:30 | 23.70833 | 23.72917 | 1139 | 835 | 304 | 1.00 |
| 4 | 137685-137685 | 2014-08-20 18:22:30 | 2014-09-04 21:58:45 | 363.60417 | 45.62500 | 2190 | 1720 | 470 | 0.13 |
| 5 | 137686-137686 | 2014-08-23 16:30:00 | 2014-09-02 13:57:30 | 237.45833 | 18.47917 | 887 | 792 | 95 | 0.08 |
| 6 | 142546-142546 | 2014-09-08 19:00:00 | 2014-09-28 23:58:45 | 484.97917 | 82.00000 | 3936 | 2468 | 1468 | 0.17 |
| 7 | 142547-142547 | 2014-09-14 00:00:00 | 2014-09-14 10:58:45 | 10.97917 | 4.00000 | 192 | 96 | 96 | 0.36 |
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Figure S11. Daytime (left) and nighttime (right) depth distribution curves, representing the proportion of time spent above a given depth, for six SPLASH-10 deployments on fin whales (colored lines).
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Figure S12. Probabilities of collision (left) and mortality (right) as a function of ship speed (>180m length), adapted from Gende et al. (2011).
Fin whales – Canadian Pacific stock (Wright et al. 2022):
pbr(N = 2893, CV = 0.15) %>% cbind
## .
## PBR 15.70251
## Nmin 785.1253
## Rmax 0.08
## Fr 0.5
## Nmedian 2953.024
Fin whales – North Coast Sector (Wright et al. 2022):
pbr(N = 161, CV = 0.50) %>% cbind
## .
## PBR 1.258035
## Nmin 62.90175
## Rmax 0.08
## Fr 0.5
## Nmedian 160.7847
Fin whales – coastal (Queen Charlotte, Hecate Strait) (Nichol et al 2017):
pbr(N = 405, CV = 0.6) %>% cbind
## .
## PBR 2.74874
## Nmin 137.437
## Rmax 0.08
## Fr 0.5
## Nmedian 402.2371
Humpback whales – Canadian Pacific stock (Wright et al. 2022):
pbr(N = 7030, CV = 0.1) %>% cbind
## .
## PBR 35.48395
## Nmin 1774.198
## Rmax 0.08
## Fr 0.5
## Nmedian 7093.933
Humpback whales – North Coast sector (Wright et al. 2022):
pbr(N = 1816, CV = 0.13) %>% cbind
## .
## PBR 10.27211
## Nmin 513.6057
## Rmax 0.08
## Fr 0.5
## Nmedian 1826.804
Figure S13. Distribution of 2019 marine traffic parsed by waterway and time of day.
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Figure S14. Monthly distribution of 2019 marine traffic, parsed by time of day.
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Figure S15. Counts of AIS location fixes for 10 vessel types in 2019, displayed for each waterway in the study area separately.
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| Species | Formula | Trunc. dist. | Family | Link function | Delta AIC | Deviance explained |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fin whale | (Lat x Lon) + seafloor depth + seafloor range | 2.0 km | Tweedie | log | 104 | 54% |
| Humpback whale | (Lat x Lon x DOY) + seafloor depth + seafloor range + year | 2.7 km | Tweedie | log | 14 | 51% |
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| Waterway | Season |
|---|---|
| Caamano | 0.022 (0-0.126) |
| Campania | 0.024 (0-0.148) |
| Estevan | 0 (0-0) |
| McKay | 0 (0-0) |
| Squally | 0.031 (0-0.169) |
| Verney | 0 (0-0) |
| Whale | 0 (0-0) |
| Wright | 0 (0-0) |
| Study area | 0.014 (0-0.118) |
| Waterway | Season | June | July | August | September |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caamano | 0.059 (0.012-0.153) | 0.119 (0.006-0.74) | 0.057 (0.006-0.113) | 0.046 (0.005-0.094) | 0.049 (0.013-0.139) |
| Campania | 0.07 (0.012-0.139) | 0.056 (0.001-0.131) | 0.063 (0.01-0.158) | 0.071 (0.007-0.186) | 0.097 (0.015-0.249) |
| Estevan | 0.037 (0.004-0.071) | 0.119 (0.006-0.153) | 0.021 (0.001-0.024) | 0.046 (0.006-0.121) | 0.047 (0.008-0.107) |
| McKay | 0.049 (0.003-0.112) | 0.007 (0.001-0.036) | 0.02 (0.001-0.04) | 0.068 (0-0.134) | 0.102 (0.017-0.313) |
| Squally | 0.11 (0.025-0.251) | 0.132 (0.021-0.429) | 0.041 (0.002-0.099) | 0.161 (0.037-0.448) | 0.102 (0.01-0.2) |
| Verney | 0.072 (0.006-0.282) | 0.006 (0-0.035) | 0.029 (0.001-0.108) | 0.085 (0.006-0.231) | 0.154 (0.004-0.786) |
| Whale | 0.113 (0.023-0.298) | 0.03 (0.003-0.111) | 0.015 (0.002-0.048) | 0.196 (0.026-0.502) | 0.165 (0.034-0.512) |
| Wright | 0.117 (0.007-0.308) | 0.033 (0-0.139) | 0.081 (0.01-0.204) | 0.164 (0.034-0.566) | 0.154 (0-0.425) |
| Study area | 0.079 (0.01-0.223) | 0.083 (0.001-0.417) | 0.046 (0.002-0.125) | 0.1 (0.007-0.359) | 0.095 (0.01-0.32) |
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| Family | Formula | edf | P-value of coefficient | Deviance explained |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negative binomial | count ~ s(doy, k=5) + offset(log(minutes)) | 2.803 | 7e-04 | 26% |
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| Vessel type | Median | Mean | SD | LCI | UCI | Median | Mean | SD | LCI | UCI | FW - HW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cargo > 180m | 0.06 | 0.061 | 0.024 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.049 | 0.022 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.01 | |
| Cedar LNG tanker in-heel | 0.08 | 0.086 | 0.030 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.070 | 0.027 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.01 | |
| Cedar LNG tanker in-product | 0.08 | 0.086 | 0.031 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.070 | 0.025 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.01 | |
| Cedar LNG tug in-heel | 0.02 | 0.024 | 0.015 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.016 | 0.012 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 | |
| Cedar LNG tug in-product | 0.02 | 0.023 | 0.016 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.016 | 0.012 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 | |
| Fishing < 60m | 0.02 | 0.023 | 0.015 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.016 | 0.013 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.01 | |
| LNG Canada tanker in-heel | 0.09 | 0.087 | 0.026 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.071 | 0.025 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.02 | |
| LNG Canada tanker in-product | 0.08 | 0.085 | 0.027 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.070 | 0.027 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.01 | |
| LNG Canada tug in-heel | 0.02 | 0.024 | 0.014 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.015 | 0.012 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 | |
| LNG Canada tug in-product | 0.02 | 0.022 | 0.015 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.017 | 0.013 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.01 | |
| Other < 40m | 0.02 | 0.021 | 0.014 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.017 | 0.013 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.01 | |
| Other > 100m | 0.04 | 0.046 | 0.021 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.038 | 0.018 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.00 | |
| Other > 40m | 0.03 | 0.033 | 0.017 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.025 | 0.015 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.01 | |
| Passenger > 180m | 0.06 | 0.061 | 0.023 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.052 | 0.023 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.01 | |
| Pleasurecraft < 40m | 0.02 | 0.019 | 0.014 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.013 | 0.011 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 | |
| Sailing | 0.02 | 0.019 | 0.013 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.014 | 0.012 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 | |
| Towing < 50m | 0.02 | 0.024 | 0.015 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.019 | 0.013 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | |
| Tug < 50m | 0.02 | 0.024 | 0.015 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.019 | 0.013 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
Figure S16. caption
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| Depth (m) | Mean | SD | Mean | SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8.7% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% |
| 2 | 14.4% | 7.2% | 18.1% | 13.1% |
| 5 | 26% | 5.2% | 41.1% | 16.1% |
| 10 | 37.1% | 7.1% | 59.2% | 15.3% |
| 15 | 47.5% | 8% | 72.1% | 17% |
| 20 | 55.4% | 6.9% | 82% | 15.6% |
| 25 | 60.9% | 6.6% | 85.3% | 16% |
| 30 | 63.3% | 6.4% | 89.5% | 12.9% |
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Figure S17. Daytime (pink) and nighttime (teal) depth distribution curves for fin whale in and near the Kitimat Fjord System, representing the average proportion of time spent above a given depth across all tag deployments (n=6 in 2013 and 2014). Points on the left side of the plot represent the SD at each depth.
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| Traffic scheme | Event | Mean | Median | 95% CI | 80% Conf. | Mean | Median | 95% CI | 80% Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIS 2019 | Cooccurrence | 509.21 | 509.0 | 471 - 549 | 488 | 5961.53 | 5962 | 5805 - 6113 | 5884.0 |
| Close encounter | 13.59 | 13.5 | 8 - 19 | 10 | 117.35 | 117 | 100 - 137 | 108.0 | |
| Strike-zone event | 3.06 | 3.0 | 1 - 6 | 2 | 25.50 | 25 | 18 - 34 | 21.0 | |
| (1.5x draft) | 3.00 | 3.0 | 0 - 6 | 2 | 25.50 | 26 | 17 - 34 | 21.0 | |
| AIS 2030 | Cooccurrence | 855.99 | 856.0 | 802 - 912 | 827 | 9419.83 | 9413 | 9220 - 9646 | 9312.8 |
| Close encounter | 22.79 | 22.5 | 16 - 31 | 19 | 183.13 | 183 | 161 - 205 | 171.0 | |
| Strike-zone event | 4.89 | 5.0 | 2 - 9 | 3 | 39.23 | 39 | 30 - 49 | 34.0 | |
| (1.5x draft) | 5.03 | 5.0 | 2 - 9 | 3 | 38.81 | 39 | 29 - 49 | 34.0 | |
| LNG Canada | Cooccurrence | 137.66 | 137.0 | 116 - 161 | 127 | 1711.94 | 1711 | 1636 - 1786 | 1673.0 |
| Close encounter | 7.20 | 7.0 | 3 - 12 | 5 | 73.08 | 73 | 59 - 88 | 66.0 | |
| Strike-zone event | 3.01 | 3.0 | 0 - 6 | 1 | 30.75 | 30 | 22 - 40 | 26.0 | |
| (1.5x draft) | 3.01 | 3.0 | 0 - 6 | 1 | 30.66 | 31 | 22 - 40 | 25.0 | |
| Cedar LNG | Cooccurrence | 19.40 | 19.0 | 13 - 27 | 16 | 236.24 | 237 | 211 - 260 | 223.0 |
| Close encounter | 1.06 | 1.0 | 0 - 3 | 0 | 10.02 | 10 | 5 - 15 | 7.0 | |
| Strike-zone event | 0.44 | 0.0 | 0 - 2 | 0 | 4.48 | 4 | 1 - 8 | 3.0 | |
| (1.5x draft) | 0.45 | 0.0 | 0 - 2 | 0 | 4.42 | 4 | 1 - 8 | 3.0 | |
| Total 2030 | Cooccurrence | 1013.05 | 1013.5 | 954 - 1074 | 981 | 11368.01 | 11360 | 11153 - 11599 | 11260.0 |
| Close encounter | 31.05 | 31.0 | 23 - 40 | 26 | 266.24 | 266 | 239 - 294 | 252.0 | |
| Strike-zone event | 8.34 | 8.0 | 4 - 13 | 6 | 74.46 | 74 | 61 - 89 | 67.0 | |
| (1.5x draft) | 8.50 | 8.0 | 4 - 14 | 6 | 73.90 | 74 | 60 - 89 | 66.0 |
Figure S18. caption
Figure S19. caption
Figure S20. caption
Figure S21. caption
Figure S22. caption
Figure S23. caption
| Traffic scheme | Event | Avoidance | Mean | Median | 95% CI | 80% Conf. | Mean | Median | 95% CI | 80% Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIS 2019 | Collision | 0.55 | 0.48 | 0 | 0 - 2 | 0 | 2.74 | 3 | 0 - 5 | 1 |
| ~ Speed | 0.77 | 1 | 0 - 2 | 0 | 3.56 | 3 | 1 - 7 | 2 | ||
| None | 1.13 | 1 | 0 - 3 | 0 | 6.02 | 6 | 2 - 10 | 4 | ||
| Mortality | 0.55 | 0.47 | 0 | 0 - 2 | 0 | 2.56 | 2 | 0 - 5 | 1 | |
| ~ Speed | 0.74 | 1 | 0 - 2 | 0 | 3.36 | 3 | 1 - 7 | 2 | ||
| None | 1.08 | 1 | 0 - 3 | 0 | 5.63 | 5 | 2 - 10 | 4 | ||
| AIS 2030 | Collision | 0.55 | 0.86 | 1 | 0 - 3 | 0 | 5.07 | 5 | 2 - 9 | 3 |
| ~ Speed | 1.33 | 1 | 0 - 3 | 0 | 6.78 | 7 | 3 - 11 | 5 | ||
| None | 1.98 | 2 | 0 - 4 | 1 | 11.24 | 11 | 6 - 17 | 8 | ||
| Mortality | 0.55 | 0.82 | 1 | 0 - 2 | 0 | 4.75 | 5 | 2 - 8 | 3 | |
| ~ Speed | 1.29 | 1 | 0 - 3 | 0 | 6.42 | 6 | 3 - 11 | 4 | ||
| None | 1.90 | 2 | 0 - 4 | 1 | 10.54 | 10 | 6 - 16 | 8 | ||
| LNG Canada | Collision | 0.55 | 1.24 | 1 | 0 - 3 | 0 | 12.55 | 12 | 7 - 19 | 10 |
| ~ Speed | 1.18 | 1 | 0 - 3 | 0 | 11.94 | 12 | 7 - 18 | 9 | ||
| None | 2.71 | 3 | 0 - 6 | 1 | 27.96 | 28 | 20 - 37 | 23 | ||
| Mortality | 0.55 | 1.06 | 1 | 0 - 3 | 0 | 10.72 | 11 | 6 - 16 | 8 | |
| ~ Speed | 1.00 | 1 | 0 - 3 | 0 | 10.32 | 10 | 5 - 16 | 8 | ||
| None | 2.29 | 2 | 0 - 5 | 1 | 23.78 | 24 | 16 - 32 | 19 | ||
| Cedar LNG | Collision | 0.55 | 0.17 | 0 | 0 - 1 | 0 | 1.85 | 2 | 0 - 4 | 1 |
| ~ Speed | 0.17 | 0 | 0 - 1 | 0 | 1.63 | 1 | 0 - 4 | 0 | ||
| None | 0.41 | 0 | 0 - 2 | 0 | 4.04 | 4 | 1 - 8 | 2 | ||
| Mortality | 0.55 | 0.15 | 0 | 0 - 1 | 0 | 1.56 | 1 | 0 - 4 | 0 | |
| ~ Speed | 0.15 | 0 | 0 - 1 | 0 | 1.38 | 1 | 0 - 3 | 0 | ||
| None | 0.35 | 0 | 0 - 2 | 0 | 3.37 | 3 | 1 - 7 | 2 | ||
| Total 2030 | Collision | 0.55 | 2.27 | 2 | 0 - 5 | 1 | 19.47 | 19 | 12 - 27 | 16 |
| ~ Speed | 2.68 | 3 | 0 - 6 | 1 | 20.36 | 20 | 13 - 28 | 16 | ||
| None | 5.10 | 5 | 2 - 9 | 3 | 43.24 | 43 | 32 - 55 | 37 | ||
| Mortality | 0.55 | 2.03 | 2 | 0 - 4 | 1 | 17.02 | 17 | 11 - 24 | 13 | |
| ~ Speed | 2.44 | 2 | 0 - 5 | 1 | 18.12 | 18 | 11 - 26 | 15 | ||
| None | 4.54 | 4 | 1 - 8 | 3 | 37.68 | 38 | 28 - 48 | 32 |
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Figure S32. caption
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Figure S33. caption
| Vessel | 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cargo > 180m | 26 | 11 | 22 | 11 | 41 | 14 | 39 | 14 |
| Passenger > 180m | 74 | 39 | 78 | 41 | 59 | 20 | 61 | 22 |
| LNG Canada tanker in-heel | 24 | 23 | 30 | 30 | ||||
| LNG Canada tanker in-product | 20 | 19 | 29 | 27 | ||||
| Cedar LNG tanker in-heel | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | ||||
| Cedar LNG tanker in-product | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Figure S34. caption
| Waterway | 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caamano | 59 | 29 | 61 | 30 | 26 | 8 | 27 | 9 |
| Estevan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Campania | 25 | 11 | 23 | 13 | 15 | 4 | 13 | 5 |
| Squally | 15 | 59 | 15 | 56 | 7 | 20 | 8 | 20 |
| Whale | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 50 | 26 | 50 |
| Wright | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 7 | 17 | 6 |
| McKay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Verney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Figure S35. caption
| Month | 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 6 | 21 | 18 | 23 | 18 | 23 | 17 | 24 | 18 |
| 7 | 19 | 21 | 16 | 19 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| 8 | 30 | 27 | 27 | 29 | 27 | 36 | 26 | 36 |
| 9 | 21 | 19 | 23 | 21 | 29 | 26 | 29 | 25 |
| 10 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Figure S36. caption
| Diel period | 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 | 2019 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| day | 80 | 73 | 83 | 72 | 69 | 65 | 71 | 66 |
| night | 20 | 27 | 17 | 28 | 31 | 35 | 29 | 34 |
Figure S37. caption
| Species | Chances (%) of… | Coll. | Mort. | Coll. | Mort. | Coll. | Mort. | Coll. | Mort. | Coll. | Mort. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fin whale | Zero | 33.1 | 37.7 | 14.0 | 19.1 | 28.5 | 33.7 | 83.4 | 85.6 | 3.8 | 6.0 |
| At least 1 | 66.9 | 62.3 | 86.0 | 80.9 | 71.5 | 66.3 | 16.6 | 14.4 | 96.2 | 94.0 | |
| At least 2 | 32.9 | 26.6 | 55.0 | 45.8 | 34.8 | 27.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 83.7 | 76.0 | |
| At least 3 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 27.1 | 20.9 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 65.2 | 52.8 | |
| At least 4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41.9 | 30.9 | |
| At least 5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.2 | 16.5 | |
| Humpback whale | Zero | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.9 | 25.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| At least 1 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 81.1 | 74.8 | 100.0 | 100.0 | |
| At least 2 | 99.9 | 99.8 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 52.9 | 43.1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | |
| At least 3 | 99.5 | 98.0 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 100.0 | 99.8 | 25.2 | 18.4 | 100.0 | 100.0 | |
| At least 4 | 98.2 | 94.9 | 100.0 | 99.8 | 100.0 | 99.2 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 100.0 | 100.0 | |
| At least 5 | 95.6 | 90.5 | 99.8 | 99.6 | 99.3 | 97.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
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| Species | Chances (%) of… | Coll. | Mort. | Coll. | Mort. | Coll. | Mort. | Coll. | Mort. | Coll. | Mort. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fin whale | Zero | 33.1 | 37.7 | 14.0 | 19.1 | 83.4 | 85.6 | 28.5 | 33.7 | 3.8 | 6.0 |
| Max of 1 | 67.1 | 73.4 | 45.0 | 54.2 | 98.7 | 99.1 | 65.2 | 72.9 | 16.3 | 24.0 | |
| Max of 2 | 88.9 | 92.5 | 72.9 | 79.1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 86.2 | 90.7 | 34.8 | 47.2 | |
| Max of 3 | 96.6 | 98.4 | 88.3 | 91.5 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 95.2 | 97.9 | 58.1 | 69.1 | |
| Max of 4 | 99.4 | 99.8 | 94.8 | 97.4 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 99.1 | 99.6 | 75.8 | 83.5 | |
| Max of 5 | 99.7 | 99.8 | 98.3 | 99.3 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 99.6 | 99.8 | 87.6 | 93.1 | |
| Humpback whale | Zero | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.9 | 25.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Max of 1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 47.1 | 56.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Max of 2 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 74.8 | 81.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Max of 3 | 1.8 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 89.5 | 94.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Max of 4 | 4.4 | 9.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 96.7 | 98.1 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Max of 5 | 8.9 | 18.9 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 98.9 | 99.5 | 1.0 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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## Melting outcomes & prepping the posterior ...
## Determining the probability of your observations ...
## Likelihood of your observation, assuming perfect detection = 0.001
## Finding the strike detection rate (SDR) that would make your observations plausible ...
## preparing L ~ SDR plot ...
## --- SDR needed for P(Observation) of 0.05 = 0.495
## --- SDR needed for P(Observation) of 0.10 = 0.355
## --- SDR needed for P(Observation) of 0.20 = 0.25
## --- SDR needed for P(Observation) of 0.55 = 0.095
Figure S38. caption
## Melting outcomes & prepping the posterior ...
## Determining the probability of your observations ...
## Likelihood of your observation, assuming perfect detection = 0
## Finding the strike detection rate (SDR) that would make your observations plausible ...
## preparing L ~ SDR plot ...
## --- SDR needed for P(Observation) of 0.05 = 0.17
## --- SDR needed for P(Observation) of 0.10 = 0.135
## --- SDR needed for P(Observation) of 0.20 = 0.09
## --- SDR needed for P(Observation) of 0.55 = 0.035
Fig S39. caption
Figure S40. caption
Figure S41. caption
| Category | Scenario | Mortalities | 2019 | 2030 | 2030 (LNG) | Mortalities | 2019 | 2030 | 2030 (LNG) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 2019 | 0.74 (0-2) | 0% | -43% | -70% | 3.36 (1-7) | 0% | -48% | -81% |
| 2030 | 1.29 (0-3) | 74% | 0% | -47% | 6.42 (3-11) | 91% | 0% | -65% | |
| 2030 (LNG) | 2.44 (0-5) | 230% | 89% | 0% | 18.12 (11-26) | 439% | 182% | 0% | |
| Speed reductions | LNG only | 1.99 (0-5) | 169% | 54% | -18% | 13.3 (8-20) | 296% | 107% | -27% |
| All ships < 180m | 0.7 (0-2) | -5% | -46% | -71% | 6.87 (3-11) | 104% | 7% | -62% | |
| Daytime-only transits | LNG only | 1.99 (0-5) | 169% | 54% | -18% | 13.3 (8-20) | 296% | 107% | -27% |
| All ships < 180m | 2.28 (0-5) | 208% | 77% | -7% | 16.41 (10-23) | 388% | 156% | -9% | |
| LNG rescheduling | One month (Aug) | 1.42 (0-4) | 92% | 10% | -42% | 7.42 (3-14) | 121% | 16% | -59% |
| Two months (Jul - Aug) | 1.39 (0-4) | 88% | 8% | -43% | 7.31 (3-14) | 118% | 14% | -60% | |
| Three months (Jul - Sep) | 1.36 (0-4) | 84% | 5% | -44% | 6.89 (3-13) | 105% | 7% | -62% | |
| LNG moratorium | One month (Aug) | 1.41 (0-4) | 91% | 9% | -42% | 7.33 (3-14) | 118% | 14% | -60% |
| Two months (Jul - Aug) | 1.37 (0-4) | 85% | 6% | -44% | 7.16 (3-13) | 113% | 12% | -60% | |
| Three months (Jul - Sep) | 1.34 (0-3) | 81% | 4% | -45% | 6.77 (3-13) | 101% | 5% | -63% |
Figure S42. caption
# Fin whales (Gitga'at average)
0.014 / 0.007 # eez (Wright)
## [1] 2
0.014 / 0.002 # north coast (Wright)
## [1] 7
0.014 / 0.003 # vancouver island (Nichol)
## [1] 4.666667
# Fin whales (Squally Ch)
0.031 / 0.007 # eez
## [1] 4.428571
0.031 / 0.002 # north coast
## [1] 15.5
0.031 / 0.003
## [1] 10.33333
# Humpback whales (Gitga'at average)
0.079 / 0.016 # eez (Wright)
## [1] 4.9375
0.079 / 0.025 # north coast (Wright)
## [1] 3.16
0.079 / 0.014 # vancouver island (Nichol)
## [1] 5.642857
# Humpback whales (Wright Sound)
0.0117 / 0.016 # eez
## [1] 0.73125
0.0117 / 0.025 # north coast
## [1] 0.468
0.0117 / 0.014
## [1] 0.8357143